This report is rooted in a sense of commitment to our country and concern about the direction we are going in. The Netherlands is a wonderful country - with smart people, strong businesses and a society in which we look out for one another. But the foundations under those strengths are starting to subside. We all feel it: decisions take too long, rules are piling up and the energy to tackle problems together appears to be ebbing away. Our strong economic base is crumbling. This has major consequences and will affect us all. If we don't take action, our quality of life will deteriorate significantly.
The challenges of our time are great and have a bearing on every aspect of our society. Digitalisation, the as yet uncompleted energy transition, an increased security threat, but also an ageing population, the housing crisis and the pressure on public services all demand renewed cohesion and action. All these themes are underpinned by the same question: how can we maintain the Netherlands as a country where people have confidence in each other, in government and in the future?
The world around us is changing rapidly. Technological and geopolitical developments are reshaping the balance of power, and any country that doesn't move with the tide and make efforts to develop and trade smart solutions will become dependent - not just economically, but geopolitically and socially too. For the Netherlands - a country that earns its money through trade - this is damaging: if you don't have anything to trade with, you will have no clout in negotiations. As a country we don't want to be a mere onlooker as these changes take place; we want to be involved in shaping the future. That ambition requires us to relearn how to make choices, work together and take action.
Given this context, this report is about more than just our competitiveness. It is about enhancing our societal resilience: our society's capacity to renew, recover and ensure the generations of today and tomorrow continue to enjoy the same level of prosperity. In that respect, digitalisation, climate adaptation, healthcare and security are the great challenges of our time.
In order to maintain that resilience and safeguard our future prosperity, we must invest in what makes growth possible: in less red tape, in modern infrastructure, in knowledge and talent, but also in mutual trust, decisive governance and quick action. If we don't act now, we will not only lose jobs and businesses, but our quality of life will suffer considerably too. Every day that initiatives become stuck in a web of rules and procedures, we are missing out on economic opportunities and allowing our society's energy to flow away. Every day that necessary choices are postponed, it costs the Netherlands more than the investments we need to make now.
What struck me most during the many conversations I had while preparing this report was the fact that the will to make improvements is there, it's everywhere; but people feel the system is hampering them. In the Netherlands we have tried to prevent risks by means of rules, but this has also narrowed the scope for action. Democratisation of decision-making and implementation has gone too far, which is in fact leading to indecision. This has a disastrous effect on mutual trust - between government and businesses, between policy and implementation, and between citizens and institutions.
Nevertheless, there is every reason for optimism. All around the country I have met people and organisations wanting to build the future - entrepreneurs, teachers, researchers, healthcare workers and civil servants. Their willingness to invest, to innovate and to take responsibility is great. What they are asking for is direction and space. The Netherlands wants to take action, but it needs to be allowed to.
That is why this report is about action. About the political courage to make choices, about leadership and about relearning how to work together. The aim is to give our economy new impetus, so we can achieve the economic growth that will not only pay for measures to address the societal challenges mentioned above, but also create future prosperity. The necessary choices will inevitably cause friction - because they require priorities, honesty and sacrifices. But if we want the Netherlands of future generations to remain a country where people have prospects, where people receive a good education, where people get the care they need and where people are safe, then now is the time to act.
Other countries are making clear choices in terms of what they want to excel at. For South Korea it is semiconductors, for France it is quantum technology and innovation, and for the US and China it is artificial intelligence (AI). We must determine our own course. One that is not just rooted in a need to be competitive, but also in a feeling of competence, strength and responsibility for our society. Being a force in the areas of chip technology, renewable energy, healthcare innovation and defence is not an aim in itself; it is a means with which to maintain our freedom, solidarity and prosperity.
The Netherlands has all the ingredients to make this happen: knowledge, creativity, capital and a strong tradition of cooperation. What we need is the political courage to make choices, the leadership to steer the right course and the mutual trust to do it together.
The future won't wait. Now is the time to build a stronger Netherlands. A country that is not only economically successful, but also responsible, resilient and safe. A country that safeguards the prosperity of its future generations. We don't have to think about it any longer. Let's get started.
Peter Wennink
This independent advisory report is a response to the request to translate the Draghi report - which outlined the future of Europe's earning capacity - to the context of the Netherlands. Dubbed 'the Wennink Report', it comes at a time when the Netherlands finds itself at a crossroads. Years of economic success have brought us broad-based prosperity, a strong social security sector and a high degree of wellbeing among the population. But these achievements offer no guarantees for the future. Dark clouds are gathering over our society. The war in Ukraine, an ageing population, the need for a sustainability transition and the pressure on public services make it clear that the foundations under our prosperity are beginning to erode. These great societal challenges require fundamental choices.
The essence of these challenges is economic in nature: in order to cover the rising cost of healthcare, pensions, defence and the energy transition we need annual economic growth of at least 1.5%-2.0%. However, the current outlook is sombre. The Dutch central bank (De Nederlandsche Bank) and the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis predict annual growth of only 0.5%-0.9% in the medium term, which is not enough to sustain our current public services, let alone make improvements. The Netherlands is in danger of losing its capacity to meet the challenges society faces.
To turn the tide we need a fundamental change of course. Further economic growth will have to come almost entirely from higher labour productivity, though in fact our productivity growth has been slowing for decades. We need a breakthrough to reverse this trend. Productivity growth is the only sustainable way to maintain prosperity, wage levels and public services. This will require investment of at least €151-€187 billion in the high-productivity sectors of our economy. This investment will have to be undertaken in the next 10 years, largely by the private sector.
The willingness to invest in the Netherlands' future earning capacity is great. These investments will only happen if the right parameters are in place, but this is the very area that has deteriorated in the past few years. In order to remove these obstacles, we have to make choices and take swift action in four categories: expedite permit procedures and simplify rules; opt for the talent that our future needs; ensure an affordable and reliable energy supply; and strengthen the economic infrastructure.
A plan is only as good as its implementation. Without the appropriate financing and administrative organisation, the recommendations in this report cannot be achieved. First of all, it is important to secure as much private investment as possible. Years of unstable policy have led to a breach of trust that can only be remedied by means of a credible, consistent strategy for the coming 10 years.
Not taking action is a choice too. Every day that we are not investing in the future of our country, we are allowing the cost for future generations to rise. This report shows that the possibilities are there: we know what is needed, what we need to invest in and how we need to do that. The will to build, to innovate and to work together is present everywhere. Let us harness that energy and make a start today with the choices and investments that will make our country stronger and more resilient. The future won't wait.
Download full report (EN, PDF)